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Equally important in determining whether
a hand that needs improvement is worth a call is the question of
whether the hand will win even if you do make it. Your hand might
lose in a variety of ways. It can happen because you are drawing
dead - that is, the hand you are looking to make is already beaten
by your opponent. For example, when that open pair bet into your
four-flush and a possible straight earlier in this page, he might
have been betting a full house, which you have no way of beating.
It can also happen that you make your hand and your opponent makes
an even better hand even though you weren't drawing dead. Your four-flush
might, for example, be up against three -of-a-kind. You may make
your flush, but your opponent may very well make a full house.
In such situations you must reduce your odds of winning and sometimes
throw your hand away. For instance, a four-flush against three-of-a-kind
in seven-card stud is a much greater underdog than a four-flush
against two pair because three-of-a-kind is more than twice as likely
to improve to a fall house. The ability to fold correctly when you
suspect you are drawing dead or drawing with too little chance of
ending up with the best hand is one attribute that distinguishes
a good player from an average one. On the other hand, poor players
are likely to call thoughtlessly on the come no matter what. They
do not consider that they may be drawing dead; and when they're
not drawing dead, they do not adjust their chances of ending up
with the best hand, taking into account the possibility of an opponent's
making a bigger hand than their own.
In hold 'em and other community card games, you can sometimes draw
dead because the cards that will give you the hand you want will
also give your opponent an even better hand. If a queen falls on
the end, you make a straight, to be sure, and a straight beats three
jacks. However, the queen also happens to give your opponent a full
house. Similarly, if you hold there is no card in the deck that
will make you a winner against an opponent holding the ace of hearts
and another heart. A heart at the end gives you a king-high flush,
but it gives your opponent an ace-high flush.
When you think your opponent might beat you even if you make your
hand, you must adjust your odds of winning before comparing them
to the pot odds you are getting. Let's say you are a 5-to-1 underdog
to make your hand, and you are getting 7-to-1 from the pot. By itself
your hand is worth a call. But suppose you feel there is a 30 percent
chance your opponent will make a hand that beats the one you are
trying to make. Should you still call? As a 5-to-1 underdog you
are going to make your hand one-sixth of the time, which is 162/3
percent. However, of that 162/3 percent of the time, you will be
good only 70 percent of the time. All of a sudden, instead of winning
162/3 percent of the time, you will win only about 112/3 percent
of the time. You go from a 5-to-1 shot to just about a 71/2-to-1
shot. What appeared to be an easy call has become a fold.
In general, you don't need to calculate your chances of winning
so precisely; when there is a chance of drawing dead or being outdrawn
after you make your hand, you had better throw away most of your
close plays because they will swing into losing plays. You have
to overcome the double adversity of having the worst hand in the
first place and the possibility of not winning when you make the
hand you are hoping to make. To call a bet in such a situation requires
very good pot odds indeed.
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